 | Guest Editorial: From Theory To Practice (v-vi) |
 | | Andrew Tait & Kurt A. Richardson |
 | Identifying The Multi-Dimensional Problem-Space And Co-Creating An Enabling Environment (1-25) |
| | Eve Mitleton-Kelly |
| ABSTRACT | The paper was written for the 1st International Workshop on Complexity and Real World Applications focusing on Using the Tools and Concepts from the Complexity Sciences to Support Real World Decision-Making Activities, held at Southampton, UK, in July 2010. What the paper wished to demonstrate was that tools and methods by themselves are necessary but not sufficient either to support decision making or to make fundamental change in an organization. By contrast understanding organizations as complex social systems and co-creating enabling environments using the principles of complexity can bring about fundamental change. There is no ‘black box’ or magic in this process; it is simply a matter of addressing complex challenges in an appropriate way. However to do this effectively implies a shift in perspective and a different way of thinking. This is what can bring about changes in relationships, in behavior, and in organizational culture. The paper uses five different studies to argue that such understanding is essential; while at the same time illustrating some tools and methods used to identify the problem-space; and that complex problems can only be addressed effectively by creating multi-dimensional enabling environments, which address all the inter-related dimensions at the same time.
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| On Understanding Software Agility: A Social Complexity Point Of View (26-37) |
| | Joseph Pelrine |
| ABSTRACT | Over the last decade, the field of so-called Agile software development has grown to be a major force in the socio-economic arena of delivering quality software on time, on budget, and on spec. The acceleration in changing needs brought on by the rise in popularity of the Internet has helped push Agile practices far beyond their original boundaries, and possibly into domains where their application is not the optimal solution to the problems at hand. The question of where Agile software development practices and techniques make sense, and where are they out of place, is a valid one. It can be addressed by looking at software development as a complex endeavour, and using tools and techniques from the Cynefin method and other models of social complexity.
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| A Practical Methodology For Managing Complexity (38-56) |
| | George Rzevski |
| ABSTRACT | The paper outlines a methodology for applying complexity science and agent technology to practical large-scale commercial, social and engineering problems. The methodology is derived from a decade of experience in designing and implementing systems for real-time scheduling of taxis, car rentals, seagoing tankers and trucks; dynamic data mining; dynamic knowledge discovery and semantic search. The methodology has also been used for designing adaptive engineering systems and for research into social issues such as eradication of poverty.
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| Complexity Tools For Smart Grids: PCT And ABM Join Forces (57-70) |
| | Liz Varga |
| ABSTRACT | This paper presents an innovative way of combining existing complexity tools to offer a better description of the diffusion of distributed electricity generation and Smart Grid. These complexity tools are Personal Construct Theory (PCT) and Agent Based Modeling (ABM). The primary value of ABM is that it permits multiple iterations of a model using slightly different input conditions (or variables), demonstrating how small changes can be amplified as the dynamics of the system evolve. The challenge for ABM is to accurately capture the behavior (or rules) of individuals (or agents). Agent rules and associated variables in existing models are determined using a wide variety of research methods which are not usually stated explicitly. The culminating rules are often mechanical, treating agents as automaton, and so do not reflect the complex emergence of new variables in the system being modelled. PCT, and its associated structured interview methodology called Repertory Grid Technique, elicits from respondents a set of constructs which reflects how individuals understand their behavior (towards electricity generation and consumption), consciously or otherwise. The constructs of multiple respondents provide a legitimate set of increasingly mature constructs which describe evolving rules for differentiated behavior in Smart Grid adoption. These agent rules, together with environmental information, such as the technological trajectories of products, political/regulatory incentives/taxes, economic wealth, population structure, climate information and housing stock, allow the ABM to be developed for a particular region or country. Running the ABM will show barriers to adoption and allow interventions to be tested in order to speed an emerging landscape of increased distributed energy generation and more use of renewables. Importantly, interventions will be linked to both sustained, behavioral change and contextual settings making for a more robust description of the diffusion of Smart Grid.
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| The Middle Ground: Embracing Complexity In The Real World (71-95) |
| | Tim Dalmau & Jill Tideman |
| ABSTRACT | The interactions of people in organizations around certain types of problems and issues can be seen as analogous to a complex adaptive system. Traditional approaches to management of these problems, whereby it is attempted to establish order and control through the actions of a few at the top has been shown repeatedly to fail. Many persist with this pattern of behavior, ironically often moving problems closer to the edge of chaos than closer towards certainty. The first step in changing this pattern is to recognize that the style of engagement needs to shift to that more like a set of complex responsive processes. The methodology outlined in this paper is one such approach, a dialogue and discernment that invariably handles complexity well and leads to positive outcomes. It has been widely used in a variety of settings and sectors and it is highly adaptable to a range of purposes.
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| Envisaging Futures: An Analysis Of The Use Of Computational Models In Complex Public Decision Making Processes (96-114) |
| | Lasse Gerrits & Rebecca Moody |
| ABSTRACT | Public decision making takes place in an erratic, complex world. Increasingly, public decision makers deploy computational models in order to make sense of the possible consequences of decisions. Such models are rarely available ‘off-the-shelf’ and are often developed for specific cases. As such they are tailor-made and the process of building and using the models becomes integral part of the public decision making process. The research presented in this paper analyzes six cases of modeling and generating outcomes to determine the influence of setting boundary conditions in the designing of models on the use and outcomes of the models in public policy processes.
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| Assessing Capacity And Maturity For Change In Organizations: A Patterns-Based Tool Derived From Complexity And Archetypes (115-132) |
| | Stefanos Michiotis & Bruce Cronin |
| ABSTRACT | In transition times leaders should be aware of the hidden and intangible assets of their organizations or communities. While linear—analytical assessment tools face major difficulties in meeting this challenge, we suggest that the use of archetypal models as knowledge systems can be of help. A new tool, based on the use of geometrical patterns and aiming to reveal and assess a system’s capacity and maturity for change, is presented here.
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 | Rationality, Complexity And Self-Organization (133-145) |
| | Fabio Boschetti |
| ABSTRACT | I discuss the definition of a rational agent in a set of game theoretical scenarios commonly used to study competition and collaboration in social and economic interactions. In particular I analyze the relation between rationality and the ability of a community of agents to self-organise into viable configurations. I suggest that a useful definition of rationality depends on the specific structure of a problem and consequently a common definition which applies to all scenarios is not available. Unless rationality is defined a priori or obtained by induction via an extensive analysis of a given problem, it seems sensible to accept an adaptive view according to which the concept of rationality is imported into a problem from the experience accumulated in similar settings and modified if evidence requires it.
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| A Graphical Representation Of Uncertainty In Complex Decision Making (146-166) |
| | Fabio Boschetti |
| ABSTRACT | The analysis of types of uncertainty and how they affect decision making in complex settings can be considerably simplified by addressing three core questions: how uncertain we are, how aware we are of uncertainty and how context and perception affect uncertainty. The continuum nature of the answers to these questions leads naturally to represent uncertainty in a 3D level-awareness-perception plot. This representation can help monitoring and assessing the dynamics of knowledge and uncertainty generation during a project and how it affects decision making. Of particular importance are how the level of unresolved uncertainty at the moment of decision making is represented in the decision itself and how the objective codification of both knowledge and the decision impact the events following a project. This leads to highlighting a further type of uncertainty which can be generated by the decision making itself and by its representation in the form of codified knowledge.
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 | Probability, Natural Law, And Emergence (167-189) |
| | Oliver L. Reiser (with an introduction by Jeffrey Goldstein) |
| Variety, Constraint, And The Law Of Requisite Variety (190-207) |
| | W. Ross Ashby (with an introduction by Jeffrey Goldstein) |
 | Adjacent Opportunities: Community Economic Action (208-212) |
| | Ron Schultz |
| TECS: A Browser-Based Test Environment For Complex Systems (213-229) |
| | Kurt A. Richardson |
| ABSTRACT | The Test Environment for Complex Systems (TECS) is a comprehensive browser-based solution designed to support System Engineers, Test Engineers and Program Management through the design, execution and review of the Integration and Test (I&T) programs for complex engineered systems such as satellites. The aim of this paper is to introduce TECS and explore its potential role(s) in the important activity of I&T.
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